Discover the Game Time for Pirates vs Nationals – Sunday July 05, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Washington Nationals

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Bubba Chandler’s 97.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 99th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-270)
  Nick Gonzales is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Pittsburgh Pirates in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .317, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given that flyball pitchers hold a notable edge over flyball hitters, Cade Cavalli and his 47.6% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this matchup squaring off against 2 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Curtis Mead has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph dropping to 79.5-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.