Check the Injuries Update for Phillies vs Royals - 7/5/2026

-140O/U: 10
(-110/-110)+120

Aaron Nola – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Aaron Nola’s four-seam fastball usage has fallen by 6.5% from last year to this one (30.2% to 23.7%) .
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Kansas City’s -1-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Schwarber, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
In today’s game, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43.9% rate (100th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+120)
Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
Salvador Perez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The Kansas City Royals have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kameron Misner, Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+4.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-140)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 away games (+9.30 Units / 22% ROI)
Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)
Nick Loftin has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games at home (+8.00 Units / 160% ROI)

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