See Picks and Betting Line for Brewers vs D-Backs – Saturday, July 4, 2026

Milwaukee Brewers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Brandon Woodruff’s 91.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph drop off from last year’s 92.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+150/-195)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Merrill Kelly has averaged 93.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Gabriel Moreno has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+9.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+4.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.60 Units / 24% ROI)