Find Out How to Watch Mets vs Braves - Sunday, July 5th, 2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)-110

Nolan McLean – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
Because groundball batters have a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Nolan McLean and his 48.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in today’s matchup facing 2 opposing GB batters.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Francisco Lindor has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 92-mph figure.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
New York Mets hitters collectively rank among the elite in the majors this year (4th-) as far as their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Martin Perez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Martin Perez’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (62% this year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
Batters such as Mike Yastrzemski with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nolan McLean who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.55 Units / 19% ROI)
New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
Carson Benge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
Carson Benge has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.85 Units / 45% ROI)

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