Top Player Prop Picks for D-Backs vs Cardinals – June 25, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Nolan Arenado has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 20% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Michael McGreevy is projected to strikeout 3 bats in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Lars Nootbaar is likely to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-180)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.00 Units / 26% ROI)