Top Player Prop Picks for D-Backs vs Cardinals – June 25, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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St. Louis Cardinals

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Brandon Pfaadt has utilized his curveball 7% more often this year (16.9%) than he did last season (9.9%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Compared to their .322 overall projected rate, the .311 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Michael McGreevy’s 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 12th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (23.6) suggests that Lars Nootbaar has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 13.3 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.40 Units / 36% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+205/-275)
  Gabriel Moreno has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 49% ROI)