Find Out the Astros vs Blue Jays Score Prediction and Game Analysis - 6/24/26

+120O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-140

Michael Burrows – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
Throwing 92 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Mike Burrows places him the 77th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Joey Loperfido – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
Joey Loperfido has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Brice Matthews – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Brice Matthews hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Trey Yesavage – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
Trey Yesavage has a large reverse platoon split and is stuck facing 6 same-handed bats in today’s matchup.
Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
Alejandro Kirk has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph dropping to 82.4-mph in the past 7 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.2% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+5.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)
Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics