Find Out the Astros vs Blue Jays Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 6/24/26

Houston Astros

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Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Throwing 92 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Mike Burrows places him the 78th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under Hits
  Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Brice Matthews – Over/Under Total Bases
  Brice Matthews hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Trey Yesavage – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Trey Yesavage has a large reverse platoon split and is stuck facing 6 same-handed bats in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Myles Straw – Over/Under Total Bases
  Myles Straw has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 81.2-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+5.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)