Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Marlins vs Mets Match Preview – May 31, 2026

Miami Marlins

@

New York Mets

Miami Marlins Insights

• Janson Junk – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Janson Junk will average a total of 1.3 singles in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Typically, hitters like Xavier Edwards who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nolan McLean.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Joe Mack, Owen Caissie, Christopher Morel).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  The Miami Marlins have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Nolan McLean in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Carson Benge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Carson Benge is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 9.1% Barrel% of the New York Mets makes them the #8 offense in the majors this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.