
Los Angeles Angels
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Tampa Bay Rays
+175O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-205
(-110/-110)-205
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jack Kochanowicz has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 5.8% more often this year (39.9%) than he did last year (34.1%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)Logan O’Hoppe has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .209 BA is quite a bit lower than his .253 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Zach Neto pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-205)Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Richie Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Richie Palacios has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 19.9% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-205)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 18 games at home (+12.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+175)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Richie Palacios – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)Richie Palacios has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 22% ROI)
