Updated Player Rankings for Marlins vs Twins - May 14th, 2026

+105O/U: 8.5
(-115/-105)-125

Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
Jakob Marsee is penciled in 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Zebby Matthews’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 87th percentile among all starting pitchers.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Ryan Jeffers has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph figure.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Victor Caratini – Over/Under Total Bases
Today, Victor Caratini is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (89th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics