Starting Lineup for Phillies vs Red Sox - May 14, 2026

-110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-110

Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Out of all SPs, Jesus Luzardo’s fastball velocity of 96.4 mph is in the 89th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
This season, Bryce Harper has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.9 mph compared to last year’s 93.7 mph mark.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Ranger Suarez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
Ranger Suarez has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-most strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Boston Red Sox with a 24% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

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