Review the Tigers vs Mets Match Preview and Winning Probability – May 14th, 2026

Detroit Tigers

@

New York Mets

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  In his previous start, Keider Montero was in good form and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Gage Workman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Gage Workman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Detroit Tigers have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gage Workman, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Jake Rogers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Nolan McLean has recorded 17 outs per start this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Marcus Semien’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 88.4-mph figure last year has lowered to 85.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets bats as a group rank among the elite in the league this year (4th-) when assessing their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 42% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 away games (+5.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 60% ROI)