Dive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Cardinals vs Athletics Matchup May 14, 2026

+105O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-125

Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Out of all starting pitchers, Michael McGreevy’s fastball velocity of 90.8 mph grades out in the 8th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
Extreme flyball batters like Nolan Gorman are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jacob Lopez.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
St. Louis’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the game: #9 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
Jacob Lopez is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue among all parks today.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Zack Gelof – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
Zack Gelof has big-time power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (29.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael McGreevy has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for Gelof.
Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
Nick Kurtz has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 56% ROI)
St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+105)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 away games (+11.00 Units / 60% ROI)
Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
Nick Kurtz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.85 Units / 19% ROI)

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