See the Updated Player Rankings for Mariners vs Astros - 5/14/26

-110O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-110

Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Luis Castillo’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (37.2% vs. 31.8% last year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
In terms of his batting average, J.P. Crawford has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .254 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .293.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
Mike Burrows conceded a monstrous 5 earned runs in his last outing.
Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
Zach Cole Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
Zach Cole has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The underlying talent of the Houston Astros projected lineup today (.315 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .326 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.10 Units / 40% ROI)
Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.50 Units / 40% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics