See the Updated Player Rankings for Mariners vs Astros – 5/14/26

Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Luis Castillo’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (37.2% vs. 31.8% last year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under Total Bases
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cal Raleigh’s true offensive skill to be a .342, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .088 gap between that figure and his actual .254 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under Total Bases
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.7% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Mike Burrows conceded a monstrous 5 earned runs in his last outing.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Zach Dezenzo – Over/Under Hits
  Zach Dezenzo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Houston Astros projected lineup today (.315 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .326 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.