Updated Player Rankings for Marlins vs Twins - May 14th, 2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-110

Braxton Garrett – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
The Minnesota Twins have 8 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Braxton Garrett in today’s game.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
Jakob Marsee is penciled in 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Zebby Matthews’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 87th percentile among all starting pitchers.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
Ryan Jeffers has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph figure.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Victor Caratini – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
Today, Victor Caratini is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (89th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.35 Units / 40% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 away games (+6.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Austin Martin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
Austin Martin has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 31% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics