
Chicago White Sox
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San Diego Padres
+120O/U: 8
(-115/-105)-140
(-115/-105)-140
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Noah Schultz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)Compared to average, Noah Schultz has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -11.3 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Extreme flyball batters like Miguel Vargas are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like German Marquez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Chicago White Sox (24% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-most strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams today.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
San Diego Padres Insights
- German Marquez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. German Marquez has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.5% more often this year (52.2%) than he did last year (44.7%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Miguel Andujar has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- San Diego Padres – 2H MoneylineThe San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+150)The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+9.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.25 Units / 64% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+175/-230)Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 10 games at home (+6.25 Units / 62% ROI)
