Mets vs Angels Best Bets and Expert Picks – Friday May 01, 2026

New York Mets

@

Los Angeles Angels

New York Mets Insights

• Christian Scott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  With 6 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Christian Scott should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Juan Soto has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 97.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the New York Mets offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Walbert Urena – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Walbert Urena’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2166 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2226 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Typically, batters like Mike Trout who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Christian Scott.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Angels bats jointly grade out 6th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 9.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.70 Units / 40% ROI)
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Brett Baty has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.47 Units / 50% ROI)