Rays vs Astros Picks and Betting Trends – 7/04/2026

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Houston Astros

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.5% more often this year (51.3%) than he did last year (41.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Tampa Bay Rays in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .310, which is a good deal lower than their actual wOBA of .323 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Among all starting pitchers, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 95.4 mph is in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme groundball bats like Nick Allen tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+6.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 68% ROI)
• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-255)
  Taylor Walls has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI)