Rays vs Astros Picks and Betting Trends – 7/04/2026

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Houston Astros

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.5% more often this year (51.3%) than he did last year (41.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Among all starting pitchers, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 95.4 mph is in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme groundball bats like Nick Allen tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.