Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Cardinals vs Cubs Saturday, July 4, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Kyle Leahy will average a total of 2 singles in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Shota Imanaga has utilized his sinker 5.2% more often this year (6.4%) than he did last year (1.2%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  When assessing his batting average skill, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 17th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 36% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+110/-145)
  Michael Busch has hit the Walks Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 36% ROI)