Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Cardinals vs Cubs Saturday, July 4, 2026

+135O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-160

Kyle Leahy – Over/Under Pitching Outs
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Leahy to throw 84 pitches today (4th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
Shota Imanaga has utilized his sinker 5.2% more often this year (6.4%) than he did last year (1.2%).
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
When assessing his batting average skill, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 16th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.3% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Related Posts