Starting Lineup for Guardians vs Athletics - May 01, 2026

-115O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-105

Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Cantillo to throw 84 pitches in this game (4th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
In the past 14 days, Rhys Hoskins’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.9% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
In today’s matchup, Rhys Hoskins is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.3% rate (98th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
J.T. Ginn has relied on his sinker 18.1% less often this year (31.2%) than he did last year (49.3%).
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Nick Kurtz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 96.2-mph average to last season’s 92.7-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The Athletics have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colby Thomas, Zack Gelof, Nick Kurtz).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 away games (+8.15 Units / 56% ROI)
Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-165)
Bo Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.75 Units / 30% ROI)

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