Player Rankings for Cubs vs Dodgers - 4/25/26

+110O/U: 9.5
(-105/-115)-130

Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Colin Rea’s change-up percentage has jumped by 5.1% from last season to this one (12.3% to 17.4%) .
Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Michael Busch’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 83.8-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 80-mph in the past two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected lineup today (.333 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .344 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Roki Sasaki – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
Over his previous 3 starts, Roki Sasaki has experienced a substantial increase in his fastball spin rate: from 2130 rpm over the whole season to 2187 rpm lately.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#1-best of all teams today).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers batters as a unit have been among the best in MLB this year () as it relates to their 90.5-mph average exit velocity.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)
Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.85 Units / 29% ROI)

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