Player Stats for Red Sox vs Orioles - April 26th, 2026

+115O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-140

Connelly Early – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
Connelly Early has a mean projection of 2.3 walks in this outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
Ceddanne Rafaela has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Marcelo Mayer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Marcelo Mayer has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
Kyle Bradish has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, notching an 11.84 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.58 — a 2.26 K/9 deviation.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Adley Rutschman has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year’s 92.3-mph average.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-140)
The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order profiles as the 4th-strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 27% ROI)
Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 58% ROI)

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