Player Stats for Red Sox vs Orioles – April 26th, 2026

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Connelly Early – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Connelly Early will wring up 5.5 strikeouts today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Marcelo Mayer – Over/Under Total Bases
  Marcelo Mayer has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Kyle Bradish has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, notching an 11.84 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.56 — a 2.28 K/9 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under Total Bases
  Coby Mayo’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.5-mph EV last season has dropped off to 87.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Coby Mayo, Tyler O’Neill, Blaze Alexander).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts