Starting Lineup for Phillies vs Braves - April 25, 2026

+110O/U: 8.5
(-115/-105)-130

Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Zack Wheeler’s 2470-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 88th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+175/-230)
Alec Bohm has been unlucky this year, putting up a .202 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .320 — a .118 discrepancy.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Bryce Elder – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Bryce Elder has recorded 18 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 91st percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+195/-265)
Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.55 Units / 85% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.65 Units / 43% ROI)
Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
Dominic Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+10.00 Units / 111% ROI)

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