
Los Angeles Dodgers
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San Francisco Giants
-175O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+155
(-110/-110)+155
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 6.5 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)Extreme groundball hitters like Max Muncy generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Landen Roupp.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Los Angeles Dodgers in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .337, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .372 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Landen Roupp – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Landen Roupp’s curveball utilization has dropped by 7.3% from last season to this one (35.7% to 28.4%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Over the last week, Heliot Ramos’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.3% up to 46.2%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- San Francisco Giants – 2H MoneylineThe San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+230/-315)Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 games at home (+6.80 Units / 85% ROI)
