Cardinals vs Marlins Best Bets and Expert Picks - Wednesday April 22, 2026

+120O/U: 8
(-115/-105)-145

St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
Kyle Leahy has been lucky since the start of last season, compiling a 3.45 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.89 — a 1.44 discrepancy.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Victor Scott II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
In terms of his batting average, Victor Scott II has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .215 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .243.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
JJ Wetherholt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
JJ Wetherholt hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
Janson Junk performed well in his previous GS and conceded 2 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Heriberto Hernandez has big-time HR ability (75th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (28.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Leahy struggles to strike batters out (19th percentile K%) — great news for Hernandez.
Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Miami Marlins with a 19.7% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Miami Marlins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.15 Units / 14% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 35 away games (+5.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+6.95 Units / 37% ROI)

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