Check Out the Live Stream Details for Twins vs Mets – Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Minnesota Twins

@

New York Mets

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Simeon Woods Richardson has utilized his change-up 11.6% more often this year (26.3%) than he did last season (14.7%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme groundball bats like Josh Bell are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Nolan McLean was on point in his previous game started and notched 8 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• MJ Melendez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  MJ Melendez has big-time power (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Simeon Woods Richard is a pitch-to-contact type (20th percentile K%) — great news for Melendez.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.40 Units / 30% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-4000)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+19.50 Units / 217% ROI)