Review Reds vs Rays Bets and Betting Trends – Monday, April 20, 2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Tampa Bay Rays

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Rhett Lowder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rhett Lowder is expected to tally an average of 3.4 strikeouts in this matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Eugenio Suarez has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 42.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly inflated relative to his 33.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Rece Hinds, Tyler Stephenson, Eugenio Suarez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Jesse Scholtens – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Jesse Scholtens will hold the platoon advantage over 7 opposing batters in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Yandy Diaz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay Rays bats collectively rank 30th- in the majors for power this year when using their 4.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.65 Units / 44% ROI)