Stream the Guardians vs Dodgers Game Live - 4/01/2026

+240O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-290

Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+210)
With a 1.39 disparity between Gavin Williams’s 3.13 ERA and his 4.52 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors since the start of last season and should perform worse going forward.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Extreme groundball bats like Jose Ramirez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2200.2-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 15th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Shohei Ohtani’s 23.8% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) is in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-290)
The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup projects as the best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+13.25 Units / 14% ROI)
Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+240)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 82 games (+16.25 Units / 16% ROI)
Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
Kyle Manzardo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.60 Units / 22% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics