Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Brewers vs Padres – Monday, September 22nd, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 22, 2025, both teams find themselves in notable form. The Padres recently secured a 3-2 victory in their last matchup, while the Brewers suffered a setback with a 5-1 loss. Currently, San Diego boasts an 85-71 record, marking an above-average season, while Milwaukee holds a strong 95-61 record, reflecting a fantastic campaign.

Nick Pivetta is set to take the mound for the Padres. The right-handed pitcher has been solid this year with a 2.81 ERA and a 13-5 win/loss record, positioning him as the 48th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. However, his 3.80 xFIP suggests some good fortune, and he projects to allow 2.4 earned runs with an average of 5.4 strikeouts today. Facing a disciplined Brewers lineup that ranks as the 5th most patient in drawing walks, Pivetta’s control could play a critical role.

On the other side, Freddy Peralta takes the hill for Milwaukee. With a 2.65 ERA and a 17-6 record, Peralta ranks 27th among starting pitchers. He is projected to allow 2.1 earned runs and strike out 4.9 batters on average, but his high-flyball tendencies against a Padres offense that ranks 29th in home runs could favor his performance.

The Padres’ offense, while average in overall rankings, is particularly strong in team batting average at 10th in MLB. Conversely, the Brewers come in with a high-powered offense that ranks 9th overall and boasts a 2nd place ranking in batting average, making this matchup intriguing. With the game total set low at 7.0 runs, tight pitching likely will dictate the outcome, making this a critical game for both teams.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 5.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Hitters such as Christian Yelich with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Nick Pivetta has relied on his curveball 5.5% more often this year (22%) than he did last season (16.5%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  In the last week, Ryan O’Hearn’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 151 games (+13.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 112 games (+29.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Nick Pivetta has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.85 Units / 35% ROI)