Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)-110
The Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals meet for the second game of their series on September 9, 2025, at Progressive Field. The Guardians, with a record of 73-70, are slightly ahead of the Royals at 73-71, making this matchup a crucial one for both teams as they look to finish the season strong. In their last game, the Guardians showcased their offensive capabilities by dominating the Royals with a 10-2 victory.
Joey Cantillo is projected to take the mound for the Guardians, bringing a solid ERA of 3.73 this season. Despite being ranked as the 91st best starting pitcher in MLB, his recent performance has been encouraging, as he pitched 6 innings with only 1 earned run and 7 strikeouts in his last start. However, Cantillo’s high walk rate of 12.1% may present opportunities for the Royals to capitalize if they can be patient at the plate.
On the other side, Noah Cameron, who has a great ERA of 3.03, is set to start for the Royals. Although Cameron has been effective, his 4.37 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate this season. His last outing was less impressive, where he allowed 3 earned runs over 5 innings, indicating he may be vulnerable against a Guardians lineup that ranks 29th in offensive production.
With the Guardians’ offense struggling overall, they will need to find a way to exploit Cameron’s weaknesses while hoping Cantillo can maintain his recent form. The Guardians currently have a moneyline of -115, suggesting a close contest is expected, while the Royals sit at -105. The low game total of 7.5 runs reflects the uncertainty surrounding both offenses. As the season winds down, each game remains vital, making this matchup one to watch closely.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Noah Cameron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Due to his reverse platoon split, Noah Cameron will hold the advantage being matched up with 6 batters in the projected batting order who bat from the other side in this matchup.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Jac Caglianone is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Jac Caglianone hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Joey Cantillo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.6 mph this season (90.6 mph) below where it was last year (92.2 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Angel Martinez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Austin Hedges, the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 79 of their last 140 games (+9.69 Units / 6% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 119 games (+20.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 15 away games (+5.50 Units / 37% ROI)