Team Stats and Insights for Marlins vs Braves Match Preview – 8/4/2026

Miami Marlins

@

Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Ryan Gusto has averaged 11.1 outs per start this year, grading out in the 1st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie, Heriberto Hernandez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Grant Holmes’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (42.9 compared to 33.3% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 14.4% seasonal rate to 26.7% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+9.55 Units / 44% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.50 Units / 24% ROI)