Rays vs Rockies Picks and Odds - August 04, 2026

-145O/U: 11
(-110/-110)+125

Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Compared to the average starter, Freddy Peralta has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 5.0 adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+140/-180)
Chandler Simpson is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Tampa Bay Rays are expected to tally the most runs (6.61 on average) of all teams on the slate today.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Gabriel Hughes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
With 7 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Gabriel Hughes meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Willi Castro has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 100.6-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 88.2-mph mark.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Colorado Rockies in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .308, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .323 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.15 Units / 20% ROI)
Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 away games (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
Hunter Goodman has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 44% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics