
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Chicago Cubs
-195O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+165
(-110/-110)+165
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Tarik Skubal’s 96-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 79th percentile among all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Over the last two weeks, Tommy Edman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-195)The best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Javier Assad – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Javier Assad is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 13th-least on the slate.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Tyrone Taylor has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph to 95-mph in the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Chicago Cubs – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+8.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 32% ROI)
