See the Updated Player Rankings for Athletics vs Reds – 8/4/26

Athletics

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Cincinnati Reds

Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  J.T. Ginn’s sinker percentage has dropped by 17.2% from last year to this one (49.3% to 32.1%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Jeff McNeil’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.6-mph figure last year has dropped to 86.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Athletics today carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .303, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .315 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Brady Singer’s 90.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 5th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Sacramento’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for JJ Bleday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+5.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)