Match Preview: Phillies vs Brewers Game Forecast – Thursday, September 4, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Philadelphia Phillies at American Family Field on September 4, 2025, both teams are riding high with impressive seasons. The Brewers hold a solid record of 86-54, while the Phillies are close behind at 80-59. This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the third game of the series, with both teams looking to strengthen their playoff positioning.

In their last game, the Brewers secured a narrow victory, showcasing their strong offensive capabilities, which currently rank as the 10th best in MLB. They also boast a 2nd best batting average, indicating their ability to consistently get on base. The Brewers’ Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound, sporting an impressive 16-5 record and an excellent ERA of 2.58 this season. However, his 3.99 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, hinting at possible regression moving forward. Peralta’s performance will be crucial, especially considering he projects to allow 2.2 earned runs and strike out 6.3 batters on average today.

On the other side, Ranger Suarez, with a 10-6 record and a 3.02 ERA, is also having a strong season, ranking 22nd among MLB starters. However, his projections indicate he may struggle against the Brewers’ patient offense, which ranks 5th in walks. Suarez’s ability to limit walks could be tested, as he faces a lineup eager to capitalize on any mistakes.

Betting markets have set the game total at 8.0 runs, reflecting a competitive matchup. With the Brewers currently favored at -125, they are expected to edge out the Phillies in what promises to be an engaging contest.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Ranger Suarez has experienced a big spike in his fastball velocity: from 89.5 mph over the whole season to 90.8 mph recently.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Max Kepler has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .294 figure is quite a bit lower than his .336 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.2 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Sal Frelick has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 70 of their last 134 games (+31.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 102 games (+18.56 Units / 15% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+8.30 Units / 79% ROI)