Review Betting Odds and Picks for Phillies vs Brewers – Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies face off in a crucial National League matchup on September 3, 2025, at American Family Field. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Brewers sitting at 85-54 and the Phillies at 80-58. This game marks the second in the series, and the Brewers will be looking to bounce back after dropping a close contest to the Phillies, who won 10-8 in their last outing.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who has had a mixed season. Despite a respectable Win/Loss record of 10-5 and a solid ERA of 3.69, Quintana’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate this year, as his xFIP stands at 4.95, indicating potential regression. In his last outing on August 28, he struggled significantly, allowing 6 earned runs over just 4 innings.

In contrast, the Phillies will counter with right-handed ace Aaron Nola, who, despite a disappointing record of 3-7 and a high ERA of 6.47, has shown signs of improvement according to the projections. His xFIP of 3.72 suggests he has been unlucky and could provide better performances moving forward. Nola pitched 6 innings in his last start, allowing 4 earned runs while striking out 4 batters.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 2nd in MLB in team batting average and boast the 10th best overall offense, while the Phillies check in at 3rd in batting average and 6th in offensive rankings. Both teams have high implied run totals of 4.50, indicating expectations for a competitive and high-scoring affair. Given the Brewers’ strong home advantage and their overall better performance this season, they may have the edge in this tightly contested matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to the average hurler, Aaron Nola has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 6.3 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Harrison Bader’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.9-mph seasonal average has fallen to 80.3-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 8th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Jose Quintana’s sinker rate has risen by 13.9% from last season to this one (30.4% to 44.3%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 92 games (+29.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 101 games (+17.56 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+550/-1000)
  Brice Turang has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+22.70 Units / 227% ROI)