See Picks and Betting Line for Guardians vs Red Sox – Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Boston Red Sox

On September 2, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Cleveland Guardians at Fenway Park for the second game of their series. The Red Sox currently hold a solid 77-62 record and are in good form, having recently defeated the Guardians 6-4. Meanwhile, Cleveland sits at a mediocre 68-68, struggling to find consistency.

The matchup features two contrasting pitchers: Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox and Slade Cecconi for the Guardians. Crochet, projected as the #4 best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts an impressive 14-5 record and a stellar 2.40 ERA this season. In his last start, he went 6 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs while striking out 7 batters. He projects to pitch 6.2 innings today, allowing just 2 earned runs, which positions him as a significant threat to the Guardians’ lineup.

Conversely, Slade Cecconi has had a lackluster season with a 5-6 record and a 4.41 ERA. The projections indicate he will pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing around 2.9 earned runs. With the Red Sox offense ranking as the 7th best in MLB, they should be able to capitalize on Cecconi’s vulnerabilities.

Adding to the Red Sox’s advantage, their offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 6th in batting average and maintaining a strong 4.57 implied team total for today’s game. In contrast, the Guardians’ offense ranks last in MLB, making their task significantly tougher against an elite pitcher like Crochet. As a result, this game presents a favorable outlook for the Red Sox, who are heavily favored to win.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+205)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Nolan Jones has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .281 figure is deflated compared to his .318 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Cleveland’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in baseball: #30 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Compared to league average, Garrett Crochet has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 8.5 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Masataka Yoshida – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-245)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 57 games (+13.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 133 games (+11.09 Units / 7% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-150)
  Brayan Rocchio has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 31% ROI)