Yankees vs White Sox Game Highlights – Sunday, August 31, 2025

New York Yankees

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Chicago White Sox

As the New York Yankees roll into Guaranteed Rate Field to face the Chicago White Sox on August 31, 2025, both teams are coming off a competitive matchup yesterday, where the Yankees edged out the White Sox with a 5-3 victory. This game holds particular significance as it is the fourth in the series, and the Yankees are looking to extend their winning streak while the White Sox aim to turn their season around.

The Yankees, boasting a strong record of 76-60, have established themselves as a powerhouse this season, leading the league with a stellar offense that ranks 1st in home runs and 9th in batting average. Their best hitter has been on a tear lately, recording 5 home runs over the past week, which adds to the Yankees’ already potent lineup. On the mound, Luis Gil, despite being labeled as a bad pitcher by MLB standards, comes off a solid performance in his last start, where he allowed just 1 earned run over 5 innings.

Conversely, the White Sox have struggled with a dismal record of 48-88 this season and rank 28th in the league in offense. Their best hitter has been performing well recently, but the overall team performance has been lackluster. Martin Perez, projected to start for the White Sox, has shown flashes of brilliance, including a recent complete game shutout, but his underlying stats suggest he may be running out of luck. The projections indicate he might allow an average of 3.1 earned runs today, which could be problematic against a heavy-hitting Yankees lineup.

With the Yankees favored at -175, and the White Sox sitting as underdogs at +155, the odds reflect the current state of both teams. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, which aligns with the offensive prowess of the Yankees against a struggling White Sox pitching staff. As the Yankees look to capitalize on their momentum, the White Sox will need a stellar performance from Perez to keep the game competitive.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Luis Gil is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #5 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Ben Rice has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last year’s 90-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Martin Perez’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (66.7% compared to 59% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme flyball batters like Chase Meidroth are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Gil.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Curtis Mead has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 116 games (+15.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 away games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Lenyn Sosa has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.20 Units / 42% ROI)