Live Updates for Braves vs Marlins – 8/27/2025

Atlanta Braves

@

Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on August 27, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup at LoanDepot Park, both teams find themselves in the midst of underwhelming seasons. The Marlins, sitting at 62-70, currently boast a slightly better record than the Braves, who are at 60-72. However, the Braves have edged their rivals in recent matchups, including a strong performance in yesterday’s game where they secured a decisive win.

On the mound, Ryan Gusto is projected to start for the Marlins. While his 7-6 record and 5.05 ERA show some promise, his ranking as the 143rd best starting pitcher in MLB suggests he has struggled this season. The projections indicate he will average 5.0 innings today with an average of 2.5 earned runs, but he must improve his strikes per inning, as he tends to allow a troubling 1.7 walks.

Joey Wentz, opposing Gusto, has faced his own challenges. With a 4-4 record and a 5.25 ERA, he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB this season. The projections hint he may pitch slightly longer than Gusto at 5.3 innings but will also need to manage his walks, averaging 2.0 allowed per outing.

The Marlins’ offense ranks 19th overall, while their 23rd ranking in home runs reflects a lack of power. In contrast, the Braves sit at 15th overall offensively but struggle as well, particularly in batting average, ranked 20th. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, it speaks to the potential for a close contest.

Betting markets favor the Braves with a moneyline of -130, reflecting a 54% implied win probability, while the Marlins are close at +110, giving them a 46% chance. Given that Atlanta currently holds an edge in performance and confidence, they may present a valuable opportunity for bettors in this tight matchup.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Joey Wentz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Joey Wentz is projected to allow an average of 2 walks in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  The Atlanta Braves have 7 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jakob Marsee’s true offensive ability to be a .312, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .131 deviation between that figure and his actual .443 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Dane Myers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 72 games (+14.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.65 Units / 49% ROI)