
Chicago Cubs

Los Angeles Angels
(-120/+100)+120
On August 24, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Chicago Cubs at Angel Stadium in what is shaping up to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Angels, sitting at 61-68, are having a below-average season, while the Cubs, with a strong 75-55 record, are enjoying a great year. The Angels dropped yesterday’s game against the Cubs, and they’ll be looking to bounce back today.
The pitching matchup features Kyle Hendricks for the Angels and Jameson Taillon for the Cubs. Hendricks, ranked as the 237th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, has struggled this season with a 6-8 record and a 4.93 ERA. While he projects to pitch around 5.0 innings today, his average projections suggest he could allow a hefty 3.2 earned runs and 5.5 hits. Conversely, Taillon, although also considered below average, holds a slightly better ERA of 4.26 and has a favorable matchup against the Angels, who lead the league in strikeouts.
Offensively, the Angels rank 16th overall but are 27th in batting average. However, they showcase impressive power, ranking 4th in home runs with 182 this season. This could be crucial against Taillon, a high-flyball pitcher with a 41% flyball rate. The Cubs, on the other hand, rank 8th overall in offense and have a balanced attack, ranking 7th in home runs and 15th in batting average.
With the Angels projected to score 4.36 runs and the Cubs at 5.14, the betting line reflects the Cubs as favorites. However, the projections suggest that the Angels could outperform expectations, especially given their power against a flyball pitcher. This game promises to be a compelling battle as both teams look to solidify their respective narratives for the season.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Tallying 16.9 outs per outing this year on average, Jameson Taillon falls in the 76th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.381) provides evidence that Seiya Suzuki has suffered from bad luck this year with his .340 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-140)The Chicago Cubs projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Hendricks has gone to his secondary pitches 6.1% less often this year (46.2%) than he did last season (52.3%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)Luis Rengifo is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The 10.8% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Angels ranks them as the #2 squad in the majors this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+14.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 62 of their last 123 games (+15.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+125/-160)Michael Busch has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+9.35 Units / 117% ROI)