Game Time for White Sox vs Braves – 8/20/2025

Chicago White Sox

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Atlanta Braves

On August 20, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Chicago White Sox at Truist Park for the third game of their interleague matchup. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Braves sitting at 57-69, while the White Sox sit at a dismal 45-81. Atlanta’s offense ranks 14th, indicating average talent, but they have been hampered by a 20th place ranking in batting average. Conversely, the White Sox are ranked 28th overall, with a league-worst batting average of .224.

In their last outing, the Braves likely took a tough loss to the White Sox, which adds pressure to their quest for redemption at home. The Braves will start Hurston Waldrep, a right-handed pitcher who boasts a stellar ERA of 1.02 this season, although his xFIP of 3.41 suggests some potential luck at play. Waldrep has been dominant, maintaining a perfect 3-0 record across three starts, but today he faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 28th in MLB.

The White Sox will counter with left-hander Martin Perez, who has struggled with a 3.09 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.78 indicates he may not maintain this level of success. Perez’s high walk rate of 13.3% could be problematic against a Braves offense that ranks 3rd in the league in drawing walks. The Braves’ elite patience at the plate may allow them to exploit Perez’s control issues, giving them an edge today.

With the Braves favored at -180 and a high game total of 9.0 runs, expect them to capitalize on their offensive advantages and the favorable pitching matchup, particularly considering the projections suggest they could score around 5.13 runs in this contest.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Martin Perez’s 2085.2-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 14th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.7) may lead us to conclude that Andrew Benintendi has had bad variance on his side this year with his 22.3 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Chicago White Sox batters collectively grade out 9th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 92.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Sean Murphy has a ton of pop (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (27.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Martin Perez is a pitch-to-contact type (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Murphy.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 59% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 104 games (+13.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brooks Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Brooks Baldwin has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 53% ROI)