Player Props Analysis for Orioles vs Astros – Friday August 15th, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Houston Astros

On August 15, 2025, the Houston Astros are set to host the Baltimore Orioles at Minute Maid Park for the first game of their series. The Astros are having a strong season with a record of 68-53, currently sitting firmly in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Orioles are struggling with a 55-66 record, placing them well out of contention.

In their previous games, the Astros won 4-1 against another opponent, while the Orioles won 5-3, marking a notable win for a team that’s been underperforming this season. The matchup pits elite left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez against Baltimore’s Brandon Young, who has had a difficult year, holding a 0-6 record with a 6.70 ERA.

Valdez has been a standout performer, ranking as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB, with an impressive 2.97 ERA this season. While he projects to allow 2.1 earned runs over approximately 6.0 innings today, his recent start was less than stellar, giving up 4 earned runs over 6 innings. However, his overall consistency and ability to strike out batters—averaging 6.5 strikeouts per game—makes him a significant threat.

In contrast, Young has had a tumultuous season, projecting to pitch only 4.9 innings with an average of 2.5 earned runs allowed, which, while average, does not reflect the struggles he’s faced. His recent outing saw him yield 6 earned runs in just 3 innings, raising concerns about his ability to handle a potent Astros lineup.

With Houston’s offense ranking 3rd in MLB for team batting average and boasting solid underlying talent, the Astros are heavily favored with a moneyline currently at -245, indicating an implied team total of 4.53 runs. This matchup presents a favorable scenario for Houston as they aim to capitalize on Baltimore’s pitching vulnerabilities.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+190)
  Brandon Young has been unlucky this year, posting a 6.70 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.57 — a 2.13 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jackson Holliday has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-250)
  In his last GS, Framber Valdez performed well and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Mauricio Dubon’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 84.9-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 80.1-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 97 games (+18.23 Units / 17% ROI)
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Carlos Correa has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+10.35 Units / 115% ROI)