Follow the Live Updates for Phillies vs Reds – 8/12/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 12, 2025, both teams are facing crucial matchups in their respective seasons. The Reds, currently holding a record of 62-58, are enjoying an above-average campaign but find themselves in the middle of a competitive race. Meanwhile, the Phillies have been performing at a high level with a 69-49 record, solidifying their position as one of the top contenders in the National League.

In their last game, the Reds fell to the Phillies by a score of 4-1, marking the second consecutive loss for Cincinnati in this series. This matchup will see Brady Singer take the mound for the Reds, who has struggled with a 4.53 ERA this season, ranking him 142nd among starting pitchers in MLB. Despite an average projection of 5.2 innings pitched today, his projections indicate he may allow 3.3 earned runs and 5.7 hits, which could be problematic against a strong Phillies offense.

On the other side, Ranger Suarez is set to start for Philadelphia. With an impressive 2.94 ERA and a Power Ranking of 24th among pitchers, he is expected to deliver a solid performance. The projections suggest that he’ll pitch around 5.8 innings, yielding 2.7 earned runs and 5.9 hits, which, while slightly concerning, typically places him in a favorable position against a Reds lineup that ranks just 18th in the league.

The Reds’ offense has struggled with power this season, ranking 21st in team home runs, while the Phillies’ offense ranks 8th overall, bolstered by an impressive .959 OPS from their best hitter. With the game total set at 9.5 runs, bettors may want to consider the potential for the Phillies to capitalize on Singer’s vulnerabilities, especially following their recent victory.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Ranger Suarez’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this season (89.5 mph) below where it was last season (90.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Brandon Marsh is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• As a team, Philadelphia Phillies hitters have shined when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing best in MLB.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Brady Singer has averaged 93.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jose Trevino – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-255)
  Jose Trevino has performed at a clip of 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 99 games (+25.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 55 away games (+16.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+165/-220)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)