Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Astros vs Yankees – 8/10/25

Houston Astros

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Houston Astros on August 10, 2025, at Yankee Stadium, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams. The Yankees, currently 62-55, are in a fight for contention in their division, while the Astros sit at 65-52, having solidified their spot as a competitive force in the league. In their last game, the Yankees showcased their power with a decisive win, adding to their reputation as the 1st best team in home runs this season.

The matchup pits elite pitcher Max Fried against Jason Alexander, who is struggling this year. Fried, ranked 7th among starting pitchers in MLB, boasts a remarkable 12-4 record and an impressive 2.78 ERA. He projects to pitch 6.2 innings, allowing an average of just 2.0 earned runs, but his high average of 5.2 hits allowed could be a concern against a potent Astros offense that ranks 10th overall in MLB.

On the other hand, Alexander has been less effective, with a 5.97 ERA and projections suggesting he will struggle to go long into the game. The Yankees’ offense, while they rank 14th in batting average, is explosive with their power-hitting prowess. Given Fried’s ability to limit walks (6.2 BB%), he may find success against an Astros lineup that doesn’t capitalize on free passes.

With the Yankees being a strong betting favorite at -200, the projections imply they could score approximately 5.22 runs, while the Astros’ average total is set at 3.78 runs. This matchup seems favorable for the Yankees, who possess the tools to exploit Alexander’s weaknesses while relying on Fried’s elite status on the mound.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+190)
  Jason Alexander is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in the majors — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In today’s matchup, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.2% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Max Fried has relied on his cutter 11.8% more often this season (16.6%) than he did last year (4.8%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Trent Grisham has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 96-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-220)
  The New York Yankees projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 101 games (+11.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Mauricio Dubon has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)