See the Score for Nationals vs Brewers Game – July 12th, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Washington Nationals on July 12, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Brewers are in a strong position this season with a record of 54-40, while the Nationals sit at 38-56, struggling considerably. In their last encounter on July 11, the Brewers secured an 8-3 victory, showcasing their offensive power and solid pitching.

Brandon Woodruff is projected to take the mound for the Brewers, coming off a strong performance where he pitched 6 innings with only 1 earned run and 8 strikeouts. His ERA of 1.50 this season is exceptional, placing him among the top 50 pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, a closer look reveals that his FIP of 2.59 suggests he may have had some good fortune in his outings, indicating potential for regression. He is certainly a high-strikeout pitcher, boasting a 40.0% strikeout rate this year, but he faces a Nationals lineup that has been one of the least strikeout-prone in the league.

On the other side, Shinnosuke Ogasawara is slated to pitch for the Nationals. With an ERA of 13.50, he has struggled mightily, and projections suggest he could allow 2.7 earned runs over just 4.2 innings today. This matchup heavily favors the Brewers, not only due to the pitching disparity but also because their offense ranks 16th overall in MLB, while the Nationals sit at 20th.

The Brewers enter this game as significant favorites with a moneyline of -255, suggesting an implied team total of 5.18 runs, while the Nationals are projected to score just 3.32 runs. Given Woodruff’s performance and the Brewers’ current form, they look poised to secure another win against a Nationals team still searching for consistency.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Shinnosuke Ogasawara – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Shinnosuke Ogasawara wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out in his previous game started and posted 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme groundball batters like Josh Bell generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Woodruff.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals makes them the #23 team in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Brandon Woodruff (37.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 5 GB hitters in Washington’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-255)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 44 games (+14.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+10.02 Units / 11% ROI)
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)