Discover the Game Location for Pirates vs Twins – Friday, July 11, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Target Field for an Interleague matchup on July 11, 2025. Both teams are underperforming this season, with the Twins holding a record of 45-48, while the Pirates sit at 38-56. Notably, the Twins’ struggles were highlighted in their last game, where they fell short against their opponent, continuing a disappointing trend this season.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who is ranked as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. With a solid 2.76 ERA and an impressive 28.6% strikeout rate this year, Ryan’s performance has been a bright spot for Minnesota. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 3.52, indicating potential regression. Ryan’s average projection of 5.7 innings, 2.4 earned runs, and 6.8 strikeouts could play a crucial role, especially against a Pirates lineup that has the 4th most strikeouts in MLB.

Opposing him is Paul Skenes, ranked 2nd in MLB and boasting a remarkable 1.94 ERA. Skenes has started 19 games and has a 4-7 record, but his projections suggest he could be in for a tough outing as he faces an opportunistic Twins offense. Although Skenes is a low-walk pitcher, the Twins have been known to be patient at the plate, which could work in their favor.

With a low Game Total of 6.5 runs and both teams struggling offensively, betting markets anticipate a tightly contested game. The Twins’ average offensive ranking (16th) may just edge out the Pirates, who rank 29th, especially as Minnesota’s best hitter has been performing at a high level recently. Given these matchups, the Twins might have the edge in this contest as they seek to turn their season around.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because groundball batters hold a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, Paul Skenes and his 47.5% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today’s matchup going up against 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Oneil Cruz has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 15.7% rate last year to 22.5% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Joe Ryan’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (63 vs. 54.4% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Christian Vazquez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.5-mph mark last year has lowered to 86.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 17° mark is among the highest in baseball this year (#2 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 34% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 44 away games (+17.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+195/-265)
  Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)