Discover the Best Player Props for Rays vs Twins – 7/4/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 4, 2025, there’s a palpable tension in the air, especially after the Twins fell to the Rays 4-1 in their last matchup just yesterday. While the Twins are currently mired in a below-average season with a 41-46 record, the Rays stand strong with a solid 48-39, positioning them as one of the better teams in American League, boasting the 7th best offense and the 9th best bullpen in Major League Baseball this season.

The Rays will send Zack Littell to the mound, who has a respectable 3.61 ERA this year. His performance has been buoyed by a low walk rate, making him particularly tough against a Twins lineup that ranks 27th in the league for walks. Meanwhile, the Twins will counter with Chris Paddack, who has struggled this season with a 4.70 ERA and a troubling 3-7 win-loss record. Paddack’s recent form reflects a lack of consistency—he has only managed to strike out 3.6 batters per game, which further compounds the challenges he faces against a potent Rays offense that ranks 2nd in batting average.

The projections suggest both Littell and Paddack will allow around 3.2 and 3.3 earned runs, respectively, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game, reflected in the Game Total set at 10.0 runs. Given the Twins’ current moneyline of -110, indicating a close contest, bettors might find value in Minnesota as they look to turn their fortunes around, particularly facing a pitcher who may be prone to mistakes against their struggling offense.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  With 6 bats who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Zack Littell should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Batters such as Yandy Diaz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chris Paddack who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Yandy Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the weakest among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Matt Wallner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.5° figure is among the highest in the league this year (#3 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 away games (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-170)
  Jake Mangum has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 away games (+7.00 Units / 78% ROI)