Stream the Athletics vs Rays Game Live – 7/02/2025

Athletics

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Oakland Athletics at George M. Steinbrenner Field on July 2, 2025, they come off a strong recent performance, having won the previous game in this series. The Rays currently sit at 47-39, showcasing an above-average season, while the Athletics struggle at 36-52, marking a disappointing year.

On the mound for the Rays is Ryan Pepiot, who has been solid this season with a 3.36 ERA, ranking him as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Despite a 5-6 record over 17 starts, Pepiot’s projections indicate he will pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.8 batters. However, his tendency to allow 4.5 hits and 1.5 walks could present challenges.

Opposing Pepiot is Mitch Spence for the Athletics, who has had a rough season with a 4.68 xERA and a 2-3 record. While Spence’s ERA sits at a respectable 3.82, the projections suggest he may struggle, as he is expected to pitch about 5.3 innings while giving up 2.7 earned runs and striking out only 4.1 batters.

Looking at the offensive matchups, the Rays boast the 8th best offense in MLB and rank 2nd in team batting average, which bodes well for their chances. In contrast, the Athletics, while slightly better than average at 11th in overall offense, have a low ranking in stolen bases at 20th, indicating a lack of speed on the bases.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs and the Rays favored heavily with a moneyline of -215, the projections suggest a strong likelihood for Tampa Bay to continue their winning ways against a struggling Oakland lineup.

Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Mitch Spence’s 90.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 13th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Nicholas Kurtz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Athletics projected offense today (.303 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .316 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Ryan Pepiot is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jonathan Aranda has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 98.9-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+5.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+22.35 Units / 89% ROI)