Orioles vs Rays Betting Line and Odds – June 19, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles on June 19, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup, especially following the Rays’ impressive 12-8 victory over the Orioles just yesterday. With the Rays sitting at 41-33, they are having a solid season, while the Orioles, at 31-42, are struggling considerably.

Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for the Rays, boasting a 6-4 record and an excellent ERA of 2.55 this season. He currently ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics, underscoring his effectiveness on the hill. In his last outing, Rasmussen allowed 4 earned runs over 5 innings, a less-than-stellar performance that may raise some eyebrows. He will face off against Charlie Morton, who has been having a rough year with a 3-7 record and a troubling ERA of 6.05. Morton, despite showing potential in his last start with 10 strikeouts and 0 earned runs over 5 innings, has struggled to find consistency.

The Rays offense ranks 15th overall and is known for their balanced attack, including the 1st best team in stolen bases. However, they are just average when it comes to home runs. The Orioles, on the other hand, are 18th in offensive rankings but have found some success with an average of 11th in home runs.

With the Rays positioned as betting favorites at a moneyline of -140, the projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.51 runs for their offense. Given Rasmussen’s solid season and the favorable matchups, the Rays could be poised to capitalize on the Orioles’ struggles and secure another win in this series.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Given that groundball batters have a big advantage over flyball pitchers, Charlie Morton and his 32.8% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard position in today’s outing going up against 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Ramon Laureano’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 87.1-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 74.6-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 9.2% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles ranks them as the #9 club in the game this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Drew Rasmussen faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Against the weak defense of Baltimore’s 3rd-worst infield of the day), Jake Mangum has a very favorable matchup given his extreme groundball tendencies.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+12.40 Units / 36% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.88 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+18.70 Units / 93% ROI)